Rarely Updated Blog

Variational Inference for MRP with Reliable Posterior Distributions

Part 2- The errors of our ways

MRP

Variational Inference

This is the second post in my series on using…

Variational Inference for MRP with Reliable Posterior Distributions

Introductions- things to do, places to be

MRP

BART

Variational Inference

This post introduces a series I intend to write, exploring using Variational Inference to massively speed up running complex survey estimation models like variants of Multilevel Regression and…

BART with varying intercepts in the MRP framework

From Old Website

MRP

BART

This is the first of a few posts about some of the substantive and modeling findings from my master’s thesis, where I use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) and…

Convention Prediction with a Bayesian Hierarchical Multinomial Model

From Old Website

Stan

Here, I use a Bayesian hierarchical multinomial model to predict the first ballot results at the 2018 DFL (Democratic) State Convention, with data aggregated to the Party…

Is Voting Habit Forming? Replication, and additional robustness checks

From Old Website

causal inference

This post walks through my replication of the fuzzy regression discontinuity portion of Coppock and Green’s 2016 paper Is Voting Habit Forming?…

Type S/M errors in R with retrodesign()

From Old Website

This is a online version of the vignette for my r package retrodesign. It can be installed with:

Why the normal distribution?

From Old Website

When I was first studying probability theory as an undergrad, I had a bit of a conceptual hang-up with the Central Limit Theorem. Simulating it in R gave a nice visual of how each additional random variable smoothed out some of the original distribution’s individuality, and asymptotically we were left with a more…

Predicting race part 1- Bayes’ rule method and extensions

From Old Website

Race is a defining part of political identity in the United States, and so it should be no surprise that accurately modeling race can be beneficial for many political…